This Remarkable Golden Spell Propels Aston Villa's Improbable Championship Bid

A mere eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused as his coach berated him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a sign or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.

On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

This is a particularly tough question to answer. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against Manchester United.

The initial strike came from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he resembled in Germany.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.